Doug Gregorie
Winsy Dunwody
Linda House
Katherine Rowe
The Three Gorges Dam Project: Boon or Bane?
Introduction
In general, dams are often built so that they may provide hydroelectric power to surrounding areas, control flooding, allow for irrigation, and maintain navigation of a river. China's Yangtze River, the third longest river in the world, has been looked at in light of some of these considerations, and now construction is underway on the river for the world's largest hydroelectric dam. According to Chinese officials, these factors are the main reasons for building the Three Gorges Dam. The controversies surrounding the dam span four arenas: political, environmental, cultural, and economic. This is due to the fact that the gains and losses involved in the implementation of the dam are great. Proponents of the dam, like the Chinese government, construction and engineering giants, and international agencies maintain that the dam will control devastating flooding, generate electricity to areas presently without it, and allow ocean-going vessels to travel inland along the river. Opponents of the Three Gorges Dam, such as environmentalists, archaeologists, and many economists, maintain that the dam will damage the environment, will destroy numerous historic sites which are representative of Chinese culture, and will cost more to build than would probably ever be repaid by the dam's productivity. The integral question surrounding the building of the Three Gorges Dam is: do the benefits of the dam (such as the provision of electricity to impoverished areas, easier navigation, and flood control) outweigh the negative aspects (such as environmental devastation, possible economic devastation, resident displacement, and cultural loss)? All of the factors involved in each benefit and loss make this question very difficult to answer.
Case Study
China has been looking for new ways to produce the energy to supplement its massive economic growth. The primary response to this problem has been to use coal burning power plants because coal is relatively cheap to mine and to process. In 1996, 70% of China’s total energy came from burning 1.4 billion tons of coal with a high sulfur content (p.54, Qing and Sullivan). Also, China has needed some way to deal with the flooding of the
Yangtze River (picture below is from http://www.vims.edu/~jpliu/sdx/long-1.html).
One hundred and forty-five thousand people died when the river flooded in 1931, thirty thousand people were killed in the1954 flood, and at least 2,000 people died when the Yangtze flooded in 1998. After the 1954 flood, plans for building a massive dam on Three Gorges area of the Yangtze were approved by China’s leaders. These leaders also inflated the power producing capacity of the dam in order to get Mao Tse-Tung, the Chairman of the Communist party, to permit its construction (p.57, Qing and Sullivan). Thirty years after its approval, the Three Gorges dam project was started.
The plan for the dam has three sections, the first of which is now complete. Section one extended from 1993 to 1997; it involved digging a channel for the Yangtze to be diverted through and the construction of a roadway so that workers could get to the construction site. Section two (1998 to 2003) is underway right now. In this section, the Yangtze will be diverted into the channel and construction will begin on the dam in which twelve out of twenty-six power generators will be installed. This phase will be complete when the first power plant is operational and a ship lock is working. Section three will begin in 2004 and end in 2009. In this section, the rest of the power generators will be installed and the final two-lock system will be completed.
The
Three Gorges Dam is being constructed on the upper portion of the Yangtze River, above the city of Sandouping. It will extend for two kilometers across the Yangtze River and will be 185 meters (575 feet) high. The resulting reservoir will be six hundred kilometers (four hundred miles) long and will flood the Three Gorges area all the way up to Chonqing (part of Chonqing will also be flooded when the reservoir is filled). This reservoir will also result in the displacement of approximately 1.2 to 1.9 million Chinese residents (class notes, Dr. McGrath, Nov. 2) who live in the Yangtze Valley in order to farm the floodplains. The reservoir will wipe out 244 square miles (30,000 hectares) of China’s best farmland (p.81, Zwinger) and "flood 19 cities, 326 towns, and over 1,300 villages"(p.53, Qing and Sullivan).Government Perspective
The Chinese government wants to complete the Three Gorges Dam for three major reasons. First of all, the dam will supply up to ten percent (p.71, Huus) of the nation’s power, which is around 18,000 megawatts of electricity. At present, China gets three quarters of its energy from coal burning power plants, which makes it second only to the US when it comes to production of carbon emissions (p.60, Qing and Sullivan). If the dam performs as expected, then the power it generates will "eliminate the annual burning of 40 to 50 million tons of coal, thus significantly reducing air pollution in the Yangtze Valley" (p.56-57, Qing and Sullivan). Second, the six hundred kilometer reservoir that the dam will create will make the Yangtze River safer to navigate. The section of the river that runs through the Three Gorges is one of the most dangerous parts of the Yangtze. Even though the worst of the rapids have been removed using dynamite, only small boats can make it through the gorges, and the going is still quite difficult for them. On top of this, the water level of the river can change dramatically in very short time periods. Ann Zwinger, a writer for Audubon, noted this phenomenon when she took a trip up the river to see the Three Gorges:
"The Yangtze has huge and unpredictable fluctuations in water level, often doubling its width in a few hours or dropping as suddenly. One afternoon our ship, after progressing smartly upstream, stops. Ahead several boats fly the red flag meaning "I am aground." Last night the river dropped two meters and stranded the vessels." (p.84, Zwinger)
Once the reservoir fills up, 10,000 ton vessels will be able to navigate the river all the way to Chonqing without having to deal with the river’s sudden fluctuations. Enabling such large boats to come up the river could encourage more trade and maybe help alleviate some of the poverty in the region (p.71, Huus). Finally, the dam should help control the dangerous floods that the river can generate. The floods have become increasingly hazardous over the years due to "intensive agriculture, soil erosion, and deforestation" (p.19, Saywell). All of these factors add silt to the river, which encourages it to flood more. The floods that occurred in 1998 had impacted 240 million people and killed at least two thousand people (p.19, Saywell). Hopefully, the massive reservoir will help to contain the river’s floodwaters.
Environmental Perspective
In spite of all the good the Chinese government claims that the nation will get out of the Three Gorges Dam, the project has attracted much criticism. Environmental groups are some of the larger criticizers of the Three Gorges Dam project. A primary reason for this is that the Three Gorges area is inhabited by "47 rare and endangered species"(p.84, Zwinger). This includes a species of sturgeon native to the Yangtze, the giant panda, the "baiji", or the Chinese river dolphin, and several other Chinese plants and animals. The sturgeon’s migration will be inhibited by the dam, and the panda and other plants and animals will be harmed by general habitat degradation resulting from the rising water levels.
However, the
baiji has been the leading cause of much of this fuss because it is an extremely endangered species whose existence may be terminated by the completion of the Three Gorges Dam. These dolphins live only in the Yangtze river and are already under a lot of pressure from the fishing and trade that goes on up and down the river and from the dams already present on the river. Though the fishermen have no wish to harm the baiji, they often get caught in the "rolling hook" lines that many fishermen use to get their daily catch (http://www.irn.org/programs/threeg/991103.baiji.html). (Fishing with poison and dynamite had already been banned by the government in order to protect the dolphins.) Also, the boats going up the river to trade can hit baiji or cut them up with their propellers. This is never intentional since it is very hard for a boat captain to tell if his vessel has struck a dolphin. Moreover, existing dams already impact the dolphin’s shrinking populations by preventing them from going up and down the river and feeding and interacting with each other. Once the Three Gorges Dam is complete, the migration of groups of baiji up and down the Yangtze will be further restricted. The dam will also increase the rate of flow of the water it releases, which will "wash the sand beaches and islands where baiji now feed and reproduce downriver into heavily populated and polluted areas…where they are more likely to be killed by boat collisions and fishing gear" (http://www.irn.org/programs/threeg/991103.baiji.html).Furthermore, the dam could generate other effects that will harm both humans and animals. Doris Shen of the
International Rivers Network, an organization which advocates preservation and sustainable use of rivers, says that "large dams decrease the frequency of flooding at the expense of dramatically increasing the magnitude of flooding once it does occur" (p.19, Saywell). Others have pointed out that some of the tributaries that contribute to the flooding of the Yangtze are actually located downstream of the dam (p.68, Qing and Sullivan). Also, the huge amount of silt that the Yangtze normally carries to the sea will get caught behind the dam. If enough of this silt does not get out with the water being released from the dam, it could decrease the depth of the reservoir and reduce its capacity to contain floodwaters. This captured silt could also decrease the quality of the water in the reservoir if it carries any pollutants with it. Some people who criticize the dam point out the much more serious possibility that the accumulating silt could cause the dam to fracture (p.82, Zwinger).In addition to carrying away massive loads of silt, the Yangtze also takes away the untreated waste and runoff that the city of Chonqing and industries in the surrounding area discharge into it. This waste, along with the pollutants from the flooded cities, towns, and villages (apparently there will be no effort to clean up these areas prior to flooding the reservoir), will accumulate in the reservoir and turn it into a "giant cesspool" (p.86, Zwinger) which would render the water useless for irrigation or any other uses except for power generation.
Cultural Perspective
Through the construction of the Three Gorges Dam there has been controversy about the preservation of cultural artifacts. The Yangtze River has been occupied by inhabitants as early as the stone age ( Jaing,1); it has been a site of many ancient dynasties producing temples, tombs, stone carvings, pottery, and the like throughout history. Chinese archaeologists state that over 1200 sites will be lost due to the construction of this dam. (Bezlova,2) The damage that will be done to these sites by the culmination of the dam project is irreversible. The completion of the dam will cause China to lose the biggest source of remnants from their ancestors, and most importantly, their cultural history.
http://web.singnet.com.sg/~twells/news017.htmOne of the major problems in saving these ancient relics is the lack of funding for their protection and preservation. When the initial stages of planning began for the project, the funding for saving the sites was left to other departments in the committee to decide (IRN,13), so an adequate assessment for funding the excavations was not properly made. Due to the lack of funding provided by the government, the archaeologists will only be able to protect one tenth of all of the archaeological sites in the Three Gorges area. (Bezlova, 3)
http://faramir.sangonet.org.za/misa/articles/1996/aug/ips/11611-ips.html Another problem is the question of who should administer the funds. This has put the archaeological excavations on hold in a time where there is great need for expediency. (IRN,4) The lack of adequately qualified archaeologists to perform these excavations is another problem. These problems combined have led to a large amount of looting in the Three Gorges area. The looting of these sites is performed by collectors, farmers, construction workers, and antique dealers. The looting began as the residents saw the sites being destroyed by bulldozers and dynamite. Many farmers would follow the bulldozers and pick up any remains to sell to the dealers. (IRN,5) Soon, people began to work ahead of the bulldozers so that the artifacts weren't damaged. Today, the Three Gorges area experiences extreme cases of looting. Dealers offer massive amounts of money for these artifacts and are prepared to give out tools for excavating when needed. (IRN,5) If this problem is not dealt with quickly, China is at a great risk of losing its cultural history forever. http://www.irn.org/programs/threeg/pr980511.htmlChina's cultural history is something which cannot be replaced. As we destroy these sites we destroy our only tool in understanding this nation’s past. The Chinese government needs to realize that saving these relics is of utmost importance.
Economic Perspective
Like most aspects of the Three Gorges Dam Project, the economic issues involved are surrounded in controversy. From the time of its approval in 1991 by the Chinese National Congress, the project's price-tag has more than quadrupled to an estimated 250 billion yuan ($30.12 billion), and no one, including the Chinese, knows from where this money may come. It is also highly questionable whether or not the project will be able to generate enough profit to repay the sizable debts that it is assuredly creating. Yet, despite the endless uncertainties, the project continues, and the Chinese government shows no signs of reconsidering.
When first begun, the Three Gorges Dam Project was estimated to cost 57.1 billion yuan ($6.88 billion). Now that this enormous bill has grown to more than 250 billion yuan ($30.12 billion), money is becoming a great issue. At least 40 billion yuan will be devoted to the resettling of migrants, but this number will probably grow. While as much as 60% of the funding for the project will come from the Chinese government, much of the money devoted to the project is coming from American investment firms such as Lehman Brothers, C.S. First Boston, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Smith Barney, and BancAmerica Securities. In 1997, the companies listed above signed a bond worth $330 million to the State Development Bank of China, a firm which is heavily involved in the project. More bonds were expected from this group (
www.irn.org).Many banking firms, including the World Bank, have strayed far away from the Three Gorges Project citing environmental reasons. The overwhelming amount of controversy surrounding the project has lead many companies to think twice before investing. This has caused the Chinese to begin thinking of ways, besides through loans, to raise the necessary funds. One idea presented was to make the Three Gorges Corp, the company in charge of the project, public. Currently the China International Capital Corp. is drawing plans to make the company public and have a share listing on the New York Stock Exchange as well as the Hong Kong Market. It should be noted once again that an American company has an interest in such plans since Morgan Stanley Dean Witter owns 35% of the China International Capital Corp. (
www.nextcity.com).According to Chinese sources, the Three Gorges Project would be a wise investment. "Upon completion in the year 2009, the project will be able to generate a total of 293 billion kWh during the period of construction. Therefore, the project can repay all loans and interests two to three years after going into full operation. If one figures that every kWh can result in six yuan in output value, the project may generate 520 yuan in industrial output value every year and create additional millions of job opportunities." (
www.chinese-embassy.org.uk)While these figures may sound wonderful, many are wary of the dam’s efficiency and consequently its economic feasibility. Figures released by the Battelee Memorial Institute, the Beijing Energy Efficiency Center, and China’s Energy Research Institute indicate that, in comparison to other forms of electricity generation, the Three Gorges Dam will be very inefficient and costly. Apparently, China could generate more electricity by using combined cycle natural gas turbines and have less environmental impact. These turbines are also far less expensive, generating power at a rate of around $650 per kilowatt, which is as much as 85% less than the dam. This translates into a gas-powered plant costing less than 4 cents per kilowatt-hour while the dam will cost at least 8.4 cents per kilowatt-hour. Additionally, the slow rate of construction will translate into huge amounts of debt due to loan interest accumulating over the expected 17-year period. If the dam runs at full capacity for only half of the year as is expected, then it may take far more than two or three years to pay back the loans. (
www.nextcity.com)It appears as though no one is quite sure how the Three Gorges Dam Project will turn out; perhaps it will never be completed. On the other hand, it may be quite successful. However, if most sources are correct, then the project will experience economic repercussions as disastrous as those expected to befall the environment.
Stakeholder Analysis
There are several parties involved in the issues surrounding the controversial Three Gorges Dam. The Chinese government, for example, is the ruling party with the most control over what happens with the dam. They have opted to build the dam for multiple reasons: to provide power to residents currently without electricity (thereby improving health and economic standards), to control flooding which has killed thousands in the past, to provide navigation on a river which is treacherous to traverse (which will increase economic activity as well), and to act as a boon to the Chinese economy in providing money through dam production, navigation, and job opportunities. These all are things the government stands to gain, yet with the precarious nature of the dam they could all fold over as losses. The government hopes, for instance, that the dam will repay all the funding put towards its construction within two to three years after operating, but if it fails to do this, the economic loss will be great (which will impact Chinese alliances with international agencies). Furthermore, if the dam as a whole fails to fulfill its purposes, the government will lose credibility (in that it has invested billions to build the world's largest poorly planned hydroelectric dam).
Another primary faction in the issue is the Chinese people; a faction which serves to represent both sides of the controversy. Many will be provided with electricity in places that presently have no modern conveniences and higher incidences of disease. At the same time, millions will be forced to leave their homes (it is speculated that as many as 140 towns and 300 villages will be flooded)(
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/asia/july-dec97/gorges_10-8.html). Also, much farmland will be flooded, leaving farmers without a means for income. With the dam, however, a greater number of jobs will be created.Environmentalists act as another party involved with the dam, particularly as an opposing party. The environment does not have anything to gain from the implementation of the Three Gorges Dam, yet it has much to lose. Habitats will be destroyed, species will be driven into extinction, silt and sedimentation will inhibit river flow, and the exposure of raw waste materials in the river will pollute the water and that which the water touches. The villages which will be flooded will not be cleaned of pollutants first, further increasing the water pollution. Furthermore, Chinese officials have not even decided what they are going to do about the massive amounts of sedimentation from the dam (and they do not have a strong record of dam success) (
www.nextcity.com/ProbeInternational/threegorges/background.html).A final party which stands only to lose from the dam consists of those in favor of preserving Chinese cultural history. With over 1200 archeological sites being destroyed by flooding, the Chinese will be left with little from which to learn about their ancestors. Furthermore, actions are not being taken to study the areas prior to the floods (not that time would allow for extensive research to be compiled, anyway). Basically, cultural advocates stand side-by-side with environmentalists in that they both are in a position to watch the dam destroy that which they value.
Conclusion
In exploring the governmental, environmental, cultural and economic perspectives surrounding the Three Gorges Dam controversy, it is obvious that the only parties standing to gain would be the Chinese government and those who would benefit from their efforts. These beneficiaries would include the people whose lives would be saved if the dam can truly control flooding, those provided with power, and those who benefit from the increased river traffic. However, the environmental and cultural damage that will result from the completion of the dam will be large, irreparable losses. In light of these tremendous losses, the completion of the dam is not in the best interest of any party involved since even its benefits are questionable. Based on the data discussed, this group thinks that the Three Gorges Dam Project will most likely be a massive failure.
Sources
Articles:
Huus, Kari. "More Dam Trouble." Far Eastern Economic Review 157.42 (1994): 70-72.
Saywell, Trish. "A River Run Wild." Far Eastern Economic Review 161.34 (1998): 18-19.
Qing, Dai and Sullivan, L. R. "The Three Gorges Dam and China’s Energy Dilemma." Journal of International Affairs 53.1 (1999): 53-71.
Zwinger, Ann. "True Nature: A Last Look at the Long River." Audubon 99.3 (1997): 78-83.
Web Pages:
http://www.irn.org/programs/threeg/background.shtml http://www.irn.org/programs/threeg/991103.baiji.html http://www.irn.org/programs/threeg/pr971112.html http://www.irn.org/programs/threeg/pr980511.html http://www.irn.org/programs/threeg/map.shtml http://www.nextcity.com/ProbeInternational/ThreeGorges/tgp/tgp3.htm http://www.nextcity.com/ProbeInternational/ThreeGorges/tgp/tgp2.htm http://www.nextcity.com/ProbeInternational/ThreeGorges/background.html http://www.defenders.org/defenders/releases/pr1996/pr053096.html http:www.chinese-embassy.org.uk/Issue_events/Press.pl-gorges03.htm http://www.chinese-embassy.org.uk/Issue_events/Press.pl-gorges04.htm http://web.singnet.com.sg/~twells/news017.htm http://faramir.sangonet.org.za/misa/articles/1996/aug/ips/11611-ips.html http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/asia/july-dec97/gorges_10-8.html